Outlook 2027 — Three Forces Reshaping the Market

The EU AI Act enters into force. The founder succession wave accelerates. PE dry powder reaches record levels. Three structural forces that will define the next 12 months.

The EU AI Act represents the first regulatory certification arbitrage in European tech M&A history. Assets that can demonstrate compliance with Articles 9–15 — particularly those that have documented their compliance within a CIFSO assessment — will command a verifiable premium. Assets that cannot demonstrate compliance face a structural devaluation estimated at 20–30% of enterprise value. The compliance window is now. Buyers are already filtering on this.

The founder succession wave is the largest untapped deal pipeline in European tech. More than 3.5 million European SMEs are currently without a successor. The tech segment — particularly bootstrapped SaaS companies founded between 2008 and 2016 — is entering its peak succession window. These founders are often first-time sellers, unfamiliar with M&A processes, and underserved by the advisory ecosystem. AEGRYN operates at the intersection of this market and the certification infrastructure it lacks.

PE dry powder at record levels creates a structural advantage for prepared sellers. European private equity funds are sitting on undeployed capital that must be deployed. The competition for quality certified assets will intensify in H2 2026 and throughout 2027. Sellers who have prepared their assets — through certification, documentation, and structured positioning — will attract competitive processes. Certified assets are expected to transact 40–60 days faster than uncertified assets and at a measurable premium.